DETROIT – The Detroit Tigers are the best team in the American League after the first full month of the season, and Javier Baez is one of the major reasons why.
Baez has been incredible. Not only is he slashing .296/.337/.407, he‘s also playing an excellent center field after switching positions to cover for a slew of Tigers injuries.
The Tigers are in first place. Javy’s playing well. This team really could be among the best in the AL. So I don’t want to rain on the parade when the vibes are high.
But I’ve just got to say it: I’m still skeptical of the Baez renaissance.
Baez is an easy guy to root for because he obviously cares, he‘s got exciting raw tools, and even through his struggles, he‘s been an exemplary teammate.
But on Wednesday -- after Baez hit a grand slam that ended up being the game-winning hit against the Astros in Houston -- some were implying that Baez deserves an apology for the criticism he received over the past three years.
I had to step in and draw the line.
Through about 3.2 seasons in Detroit, Baez has made roughly $71,700,000 in salary. So even if this breakout is completely legitimate and he‘s back to being a difference maker, a combined 2.1 WAR over three seasons warrants criticism.
One good month to start 2025 doesn’t erase what the Tigers were missing at shortstop the past two seasons. And even this month comes with red flags.
Baez currently ranks among the bottom 20% of MLB hitters with an 87.1 mph exit velocity and a 32.2% hard-hit rate.
He‘s still chasing nearly as much as anyone in baseball -- a 38.4% rate that leaves him among the bottom 4%. At the same time, his walk rate remains very low at 4.7%.
It seems like Baez is being more patient at the plate, but that hasn’t led to better overall plate discipline. His 25.6% strikeout rate is actually the highest of his Tigers career.
By measuring how hard and where players hit the ball, Statcast creates “expected” stats based on how those metrics have historically translated to production.
So here‘s a look at Baez’s actual stats next to what Statcast believes they should be (NOTE: wOBA is weighed on-base average -- in other words, on-base percentage that rewards extra base hits).
Now, it’s imperative to remember that baseball is played on the field. It’s not played with calculators. It’s human beings. So statistics and metrics aren’t everything.
But if you roll your eyes at any mention of analytics, that’s not the right mentality, either. The best baseball minds have room for both.
These are facts that the numbers can tell us: Baez is not hitting the ball hard. He‘s chasing pitches out of the zone. He‘s striking out. He‘s not walking.
I personally don’t believe that Baez has suddenly become some kind of master at, I don’t know -- purposely directing the ball where there‘s no defender? That’s really the only explanation if you want to argue that his current pace is sustainable.
Good hitters usually do at least one of two things: They hit the ball hard or they show great plate discipline.
Right now, Baez isn’t doing either. Even his grand slam Wednesday had an .090 expected batting average and would have been a flyout in 26 of 30 MLB parks.
I’m rooting like heck for Baez because he‘s locked in with Detroit for the next 2.8 years, and the world is a much brighter place when the Tigers are good.
Baez is clearly an excellent defender in center field, even though he‘s playing there for the first time in his 12-year MLB career. And his base running is still solid. So there are ways he can help this team outside the batter’s box.
But when it comes to his swing, there are a ton of warning signs beneath the surface of this strong first month. And more times than not, those catch up to a player over the course of 162.
